Modeled Impacts of LULC and Climate Change Predictions on the Hydrologic Regime in Belize

Land use and land cover (LULC) change can have detrimental effects on water quality. In Belize, agricultural expansion creates the risk of increased sediment load excess nutrients in runoff water, while deforestation removes potential infiltration sites for this outflow. Climate evolving precipitation rates intensify quantity runoff, further enabling flow sediments out to lagoon surrounding Belize Barrier Reef Reserve System (BBRRS). This study sought estimate impacts future quality by first modeling LULC through 2090 across Belize’s major watersheds based observed trends from 2008 2018. Those projections were subsequently combined with soil type data, elevation, into a hydrologic model produce estimates as proxy The two Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 (CMIP-6) scenarios employed represented bookend climate scenarios, both indicated generally lower over next century due change. most extreme scenario predicted 46% decrease precipitation. When holding constant, these projected suggesting positive relationship between runoff. contrast northern watersheds, southern are experience greater decreases annual rainfall 2090. approximately 2.8% Conservation-focused 2090, which was 28% than Business Usual scenario, 42% Development scenario. study’s integration CMIP6 provides more holistic view supports long-term planning efforts local decision-making agencies.